Will Wade's work building N.C. State into included the pursuit of an entrant in the NBA draft, just in case he returned to college.
It wasn't a huge risk: With all the cash flowing in college, the number of early entrants to the NBA draft has continued to shrink. starts Wednesday night with its lowest total of those prospects in at least 10 years.
鈥淣ow you can play the long game a little bit more,鈥� Wade told The Associated Press, referring to how college players can look at their futures. 鈥淟ook, I can get paid the same I would get paid in the G League, the same I would get paid on a two-way (contract), some guys are getting first-round money."
And more money is on the way.
It's been four years since college athletes , opening the door for athlete compensation that was once forbidden by NCAA rules. Next week, on July 1, marks the where schools can begin directly paying athletes .
For Wade, that led to signing Texas Tech's Darrion Williams after 247sports鈥� fifth-ranked transfer withdrew from the draft.
鈥淏asically now if you鈥檙e an early entry and you鈥檙e not a top-20, top-22 pick 鈥� where the money slots 鈥� you can pretty much make that in college,鈥� the new Wolfpack coach said.
It's all part of a seismic change that has rippled through college athletics since the pandemic, its impact touching the NBA. Players willing to 鈥渢est the waters鈥� in the draft before returning to school now have a lucrative option to consider against uncertain pro prospects.
And it shows in the numbers.
鈥淲ith all the money that鈥檚 being thrown around in NIL, you鈥檙e having a lot less players put their names in,鈥� said. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e having pretty good players pulling their names out.鈥�
Declining number of early entrants
This year's drop is significant when compared to the years before anyone had heard of COVID-19. There was a spike of college players jumping into the draft in the pandemic's aftermath, when they were granted to temporarily make even a fourth-year senior an 鈥渆arly鈥� entrant.
But those numbers had fallen as those five-year players cycled out of college basketball, and they're now below pre-pandemic levels. That decline coincides with NIL鈥檚 July 2021 arrival, from to boosters .
As a result:
鈥� Eighty-two players appeared on the NBA's list of early entrants primarily from American colleges with a smattering of other teams, down 49% from 2024 (162) and nearly 47% compared to the four-year average from 2016-19 (153.5);
鈥� Thirty-two remained after withdrawal deadlines, down from 62 last year and 72.0 from 2016-19;
鈥� Adding international prospects, 109 players declared for the draft, down from 201 last year and 205.0 from 2016-19;
鈥� And only 46 remained, down from 77 in 2024 and 83.8 from 2016-19.
More college players weighing options
Duke coach Jon Scheyer understands draft dynamics, both for no-doubt headliners and prospects facing less clarity. He sees college athlete compensation as a 鈥渓egitimate gamechanger."
鈥淗opefully it allows players to decide what鈥檚 truly best for their game,鈥� Scheyer told the AP. 鈥淚t allows them to analyze: 鈥楢m I actually ready for this or not?鈥� Where money doesn鈥檛 have to be the deciding factor. Because if money鈥檚 the deciding factor, that鈥檚 why you see kids not stick. The NBA鈥檚 cutthroat. It just is.鈥�
The Blue Devils are expected to have three players selected in the first-round Wednesday, including presumptive alongside top-10 prospects Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach. They also had players sorting through draft decisions.
Freshman Isaiah Evans 鈥� a slender wing with explosive scoring potential 鈥� withdrew instead of chasing first-round status through the draft process. Incoming transfer Cedric Coward from Washington State rapidly rose draft boards after the combine and remained in the draft.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no substituting the money you鈥檙e going to make if you鈥檙e a top-15, top-20 pick,鈥� said Scheyer, entering Year 4 . 鈥淏ut if you鈥檙e not solidified as a first-round pick, why risk it when you can have a solid year and a chance to go up or be in the same position the following season?鈥�
College compensation is re-shaping the draft pool
Langdon, himself a former Duke first-rounder, sees that evolution, too.
His Pistons had their first playoff appearance since 2019, but lack a first-round selection and own a single pick in Thursday鈥檚 second round. Fewer candidates could make the already imperfect science of drafting even trickier in this new reality.
According to the NBA鈥檚 2024-25 rookie scale, a player going midway through the first round would make roughly $3.5 million in first-year salary. That figure would drop to about $2.8 million at pick No. 20, $2.3 million at No. 25 and $2.1 million with the 30th and final first-round draftee.
A minimum first-year NBA salary? Roughly $1.2 million.
鈥淭hese NIL packages are starting to get up to $3 to $4 to $5 to $6 million dollars,鈥� Langdon said. 鈥淭hese guys are not going to put their name in to be the 25th pick, or even the 18th pick. They are going to go back to school in hopes of being a lottery pick next year. With that pool of players decreasing, it kind of decreases the odds of the level of player we get at No. 37, just the pure mathematics.鈥�
Current NBA players offer insight
Indiana Pacers big man Thomas Bryant and Oklahoma City Thunder counterpart Isaiah Hartenstein, who both played in , illustrate Langdon鈥檚 point.
They were back-to-back second-rounders in 2017 (Bryant at 42, Hartenstein at 43), pushed down a draft board featuring early-entry college players in 33 of the 41 picks before them.
Bryant played two college seasons at Indiana before stints with five NBA teams, including Denver鈥檚 2023 championship squad. Would the ability to make college money have changed his journey?
鈥淭o be honest, I see it from both sides," Bryant said. "If you鈥檙e not going to get drafted, you understand that a kid needs money to live in college and everything. So, I understand where they鈥檙e coming from on that end.
鈥淏ut for me, I took the chance. I bet on myself, and I believed in myself, and I worked to the very end. And the thing about me is that if I went down, I was going down swinging. I hang my hat on that. For some, it might not be the same case."
The American-born Hartenstein moved to Germany at 11 and played in Lithuania before being drafted. As he put it: 鈥淚 think everyone鈥檚 journey is different.鈥�
鈥淚 think you should have the right people around you to kind of guide you,鈥� said Hartenstein, a newly minted NBA champion. 鈥淚 mean, I was lucky that my dad, who was a professional before, kind of guided me. Depending on your circumstances, it鈥檚 hard to turn down guaranteed money. If there鈥檚 an opportunity to get in a good situation in the NBA, you do that. But it鈥檚 a hard decision.鈥�
College now can be more of an allure
At N.C. State, Wade's pitch to Williams included a leading role and a shot at boosting his draft stock.
The 6-foot-6 junior averaged 15.1 points with as the Red Raiders reached the Elite Eight, .
鈥淗e was most likely going to be a second-round draft pick, and his package here is better than probably he would鈥檝e gotten as a second-round pick,鈥� Wade said, adding: 鈥淲e certainly talked about that. We went over that. We went over the math of everything. We went over the plan on how to accomplish that."
That's not to say it's easy at the college level in this new landscape. is tricky, including a balancing act of maintaining financial resources to potentially land one player while risking missing out on others.
鈥淚t鈥檚 the way life works, it鈥檚 the way it should work,鈥� Wade said. 鈥淚f there鈥檚 no risk, there鈥檚 no reward. The riskiest players, in terms of waiting on the money and waiting them out, are the best players. That鈥檚 why they鈥檙e in the draft process. We鈥檙e not going to be scared of that.鈥�
Nor should he, not with the allure of campus life these days.
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AP Basketball Writer Tim Reynolds and AP Sports Writer Larry Lage contributed to this report.
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AP NBA:
Aaron Beard, The Associated Press
