The Vancouver Canucks are back in the draft lottery. Sort of.
For the eighth time in the last decade, the Canucks are out of the playoffs. Instead of playing in the postseason, they'll be watching ping pong balls get plucked out of a lottery machine to determine where they pick in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft.
The draft lottery will take place on Monday, May 5 at 4 p.m. PDT and, for the first time ever, the drawing will take place live in studio for fans to watch on television: ESPN in the U.S. and Sportsnet and TVA Sports in Canada.
In previous years, the draft lottery took place behind closed doors. Even though the lottery was run by an independent accounting firm and each team was allowed an observer to ensure fairness, conspiracy theories still arose around the draft lottery, with some fans accusing the NHL of cheating the results to ensure star players go to preferred markets.
Quelling the conspiracy theories might be one of the goals of televising the drawing live, but making the event more entertaining is likely the guiding principle, as nothing the NHL has previously done with the broadcast could distract from the fact that the big event was NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly flipping over cards with logos on them.
The NHL will conduct two draws: one for the first overall pick and one for the second overall pick. With 14 balls in the lottery machine, there are 1,001 combinations of four numbers that can be drawn, with no repeated numbers. One of those combinations will trigger a redraw, giving the NHL 1,000 combinations to distribute among the 16 teams in the lottery, allowing them to give each team a precise percentage to one decimal place based on where they finished in the standings.
The San Jose Sharks, for instance, have an 18.5% chance of winning the first lottery draw for the first overall pick because they finished last place in the NHL. Accordingly, they will have 185 combinations of four numbers to their name. If, in the initial draw, any one of those combinations is drawn, in any order, they will pick first overall.
The Canucks, of course, don't have 185 combinations; they have five.
That gives the Canucks a 0.5% of winning the initial draw for the first overall pick, but, even if they win, they can't actually get the first overall pick. Since 2021, teams can only move up ten spots in the draft order. The Canucks, who finished 18th in the NHL standings — 15th from the bottom — can only move up to fifth overall if they win either of the two draws.
The NHL has , so fans can know ahead of time which combinations they should be hoping to see.
Here are the Canucks' five combinations:
- 2 - 4 - 5 - 11
- 2 - 9 - 12 - 14
- 5 - 6 - 11 - 14
- 5 - 7 - 10 - 13
- 5 - 9 - 10 - 11
Drawing directly from the lottery machine live ought to add some drama to the proceedings, as fans will watch with bated breath as each number is selected. If a 1, 3, or 8 is drawn first, the Canucks will be eliminated from contention, but any one of the remaining 11 numbers would keep their hopes alive.
That provides some rising tension, heartbreak, and jubilation that ought to outdo watching Bill Daly flip over some cards.
For instance, in the 2023 draft lottery, the Canucks were just one number away from winning the first overall pick, which would have given them Connor Bedard. The winning combination was 4 - 5 - 9 - 13; one of the Canucks' combinations was 4 - 5 - 9 - 12.
Canucks fans only found out about that after the fact. Seeing it unfold live on the air would have been far more compelling.
Of course, the most likely result for the Canucks is that they stay put at 15th overall. The odds of one of their five combinations of numbers getting picked in either of the two draws are slim to none. But those odds aren't zero either.
Canucks fans might also want to keep an eye on the New York Rangers' pick. They have the 11th-best odds to win the draft lottery at 3.0%, with 30 combinations of four numbers. That's the pick the Canucks acquired in the J.T. Miller trade and subsequently flipped to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Marcus Pettersson trade.
That pick is conditional. If the Rangers picked outside of the top 13, the condition would be satisfied and automatically go to the Penguins. Since the Rangers are guaranteed to pick in the top 13, however, they have the option to keep the pick and send the Penguins their 2026 first-round pick instead.
If the Rangers win the draft lottery and move up to first or second overall, they'll surely keep the pick, transferring the unprotected 2026 pick to the Penguins. That pick could have belonged to the Canucks instead, and that pick could once again be a lottery pick.
